Day 233 – Swine flu in Mexico
2009/04/27 § 2 Comments
I am currently evaluating the situation of swine flu in Mexico. My plan was to fly to Toronto from Mexico City, but now the situation has changed in that there might be either no chance to get to Mexico city easily or that the risk demands a change of plans.
As a friend of mine pointed out, when looking at the number of dead individuals which now is somewhere around 200 the risk appears small, as to compared to let’s say being run over by a car in Mexico.
However, the epidemic development of the past few days may indicate a near exponential increase of cases which in turn can change the above assessment within days. Considering the incubation time for the disease it is entirely possible that we will see a pandemic within the next two weeks.
On the other hand it maintains possible as well that the outbreak is temporary and stays restricted to some regions of Mexico.
If you have planned a flight check with your company. Mine for example (Mexicana) offers a change of the tickets from Mexico City. The situation is not clear yet as Mexican authorities are alarmed but have not yet blocked entrance to Mexico city. They may, some speculate, be about to do that though. Already gatherings of large crowds have been reported to be forbidden and travelers may be checked at train stations.
It seems hard to come by “good” info and a lot of Mexicans doubt that the goverment tells us the truth. For more comments by people from Mexico city check the BBC. Some excerpts:
A MD says: “The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.”
A reader comments: “The situation in Mexico City is really not normal. There is a sense of uncertainty that borders on paranoid behaviour in some cases. At this very moment, Mexican TV is showing how military forces are giving masks to the people in the streets.”