Total manager admits: end of oil could come in 20 years!

2009/04/12 § 2 Comments

The “financial crisis” has diverted attention from oil as a dying resource, especially since the oil price has dropped again from its 147$ high a while ago. But now the CEO of Total in Germany, a huge oil company, admits in an interview that the price might go up again [1]. Even thought he seems to avoid the term “peak-oil” he announces that the end of cheap oil has come.

He also admits that the maximum production capacity for oil is less than 105 barrels per day. “End of cheap oil”, “we have used half the existing oil” and “reaching production maximum” is exactly what peak-oil means! At least now we start talking about it, or so one can hope.

While he does not agree with one prediction by the IEA (International energy agency) that the price will be up to 200$ in 2013, in actual fact the price is anyone’s guess. With a lack of 3 million barrels of oil per day in 2007 we saw 150$ prices. What price will give us a lack of 20 million barrels per day, as we may see it in 2020?

Total’s manager even thinks that the end of our oil might come in 2020. And it makes sense. We have used half our oil in the past 100 years or so. With the exponential growth we have had and predict for the future the remainder of oil will be used up in just some 10 to 20 years [2]! ((100x log2)/3-5% growth of oil consumption per year)

Cheap oil ends now. What do we do against it? Not much right now, but Total managers admitting the problem is a good start.



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